Weather January 2020
2019 is about to end and a brand new year of 2020 is about to begin. With the New Year’s Day getting closer, winter is just getting started. January is on average the coldest and snowiest month in the U.S. My opinion, with El Nino and La Nina being neutral heading into January, this will help keep temperatures little warmer in the Northeast and parts of New England. The Southeast typically will see above average temperatures with the neutral phase of El Nino and La Nina.
The polar vortex has been strong and has been staying in the North Pole. Alaska has been feeling the effects of the polar vortex staying so far north. When the polar vortex is this strong, the vortex will stay in the Arctic and plunging into the U.S. lower 48 is less likely. Fact about the polar vortex, the polar vortex is not a storm, it is a area of low pressure that sits at the top of the poles of the Earth. Being the polar vortex is not a storm there is no warm of cold fronts involved with the polar vortex.
The outlook for January 2020, is most of the U.S. will be at normal or slightly above normal except in northern Montana, northern Idaho and far northeastern Washington where temperatures are forecasted to below average. The only area of the country that is forecasted to be much above average temperatures is the Southeast.
Right now, the Pacific/North American pattern (PNA) is expected to stay negative into January 2020. When the PNA is negative that typically means the jet stream will dip into the Southwest and high pressure will push the jet stream North for the Eastern U.S. Cooler temperatures would be out West while milder conditions will be in the East.
The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is in a strong positive phase. When the NOA is positive, this typically means and area of low pressure near Iceland and an area of high pressure near the Azores. When this happens, milder conditions for East and cooler temperatures in the West are usually associated with a positive NAO.
Both the PNA and NAO play a big part in which way temperatures trend during the winter in the lower 48 in the U.S.
Hopefully with the winter months just getting started for area’s that are typically cold, this forecast for residents in these area’s that are hoping for milder temperatures, the forecast will bring a bright spot to get threw January.