Winter 2019 2020 Forecast
The NOAA has released and updated winter 2019 2020 forecast. With El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) going neutral now, the original winter predictions now have changed. In the absence of El Nino or La Nina, long-term trends become a key predictor for the outlook, while other climate patterns, such as the Madden-Julian Oscillation and Arctic Oscillation (AO), will likely play a larger role in determining winter weather. Without either El Nino or La Nina conditions, short-term climate patterns like the Arctic Oscillation will drive winter weather and could result in large swings in temperature and precipitation this upcoming winter.
The 2019-20 U.S. Winter Outlook | December through February
- The greatest likelihood for warmer-than-normal conditions are in Alaska and Hawaii, with more modest probabilities for above-average temperatures spanning large parts of the remaining lower 48 from the West across the South and up the eastern seaboard.
- The Northern Plains, Upper Mississippi Valley, and the western Great Lakes have equal chances for below-, near- or above-average temperatures.
- No part of the U.S. is favored to have below-average temperatures this winter.
- Wetter-than-average conditions are most likely in Alaska and Hawaii this winter, along with portions of the Northern Plains, Upper Mississippi Valley, the Great Lakes and parts of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast.
- Drier-than-average conditions are most likely for Louisiana, parts of Texas, Mississippi, Arkansas and Oklahoma as well areas of northern and central California.
- The remainder of the U.S. falls into the category of equal chances for below, near or above-average precipitation.
From the last blog article I wrote about NOAA winter forecast the weather map definitely changed. The Northeast temps are forecast to be warmer than normal, but precipitation is going to be above average. Now, this will be nothing out of the ordinary in my opinion because I never remember a drier than average winter that I can recall. The good thing will be snow falls and snow on the ground won’t be as harsh or on the ground as long as it typical could be. There is more hope though that temperatures can be warmer than average.
NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center updates the three-month outlook each month. The next update will be available November 21. This will be real interesting come November 21 to see what has changed since October 17.